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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still